Rishi Sunak has refused to rule out holding a UK general election in July, fuelling speculation among some Conservative MPs that the prime minister might go to the country earlier than expected.
Sunak’s aides insist they are still “planning for an autumn election” and most Tory MPs remain convinced the prime minister will play it long, hoping for a revival in economic and political fortunes later in the year.
However, Sunak on Tuesday did nothing to dampen speculation of a summer poll, which was heightened this week when he revealed that he hoped to start deporting asylum seekers to Rwanda in July.
Asked by reporters on a visit to Poland about a possible July vote, Sunak left the option open, repeating his familiar formula: “My working assumption is an election in the second half of the year.”
The last possible date for a general election is on January 28 2025, but most expect a summer or autumn poll this year. So what are the factors that will shape his decision?
The case for a summer election
Sunak is braced for a battering in local elections on May 2, with the possibility that some Tory MPs will launch a putsch against him in the immediate aftermath of a heavy defeat.
By swiftly announcing the date of a general election, Sunak might hope to head off the rebels and force his party into line by confronting them with an imminent rendezvous with the electorate.
If the results on May 2 are better than expected — for example if the Conservatives cling on to northern mayoralties in West Yorkshire and Tees Valley — the prime minister could decide that is as good as it’s going to get.
Labour strategists say they can see how Sunak might go to the country in the summer, when he hopes to dispatch the first deportation flights to Rwanda.
There could be other good news, with economists expecting inflation to fall to close to the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target next month and hover close to that level for most of 2024.
A Nato summit in Washington on July 9-11 would also give Sunak a global stage to present himself as a tough leader in dangerous times; on Tuesday he vowed to increase UK defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2030.
The case against a summer election
The polls.
The Conservatives consistently trail Labour by 20 points and going to the country in such a dire political state would be an act of considerable bravery — some would say foolishness.
One former minister said: “The only reason for going to the country in the summer is if you think things are going to get even worse. I’ve never seen a prime minister think that.”
While inflation might have fallen to 2 per cent by July and real wages will have been rising for some time, it is possible that the BoE will not yet have started cutting interest rates.
Jeremy Hunt, chancellor, told the FT in December that a rate cut would probably be “the moment when people will begin to have more confidence about their own personal prospects and the prospects of their family”.
Recent commentary from BoE governor Andrew Bailey and deputy governor Dave Ramsden has kept alive hopes of a June rate cut, but other members of the bank’s monetary policy committee are warning against cutting rates too soon.
Many economists think the central bank is more likely to wait until August, when it will have more certainty that inflationary pressures have died down.
The case for an autumn election
Isaac Levido, the Tory campaign chief, believes the election will be fought on the economy and is looking for “proof points” to show that Sunak’s plan is working. By the autumn they may be easier to identify.
Waiting until the autumn would also allow Hunt to hold a tax-cutting Autumn Statement in early September, possibly cutting another 2p off employee national insurance rates if the public finances allow.
Sunak’s allies expect the BoE to have started cutting interest rates before a poll in October or November, vindicating the prime minister’s claim that inflation had been tamed and the economy is recovering.
Rates are currently at a 16 year high of 5.25 per cent but some economists think mortgage holders will soon start to get some relief.
“We think borrowers on a two-year fix will be [able to] remortgage on to a lower rate from October,” said Capital Economics. “The average quoted two-year mortgage rate shot up to 6.0 per cent in October 2022 following the mini-Budget, whereas it is now 5 per cent. By October we think it will have eased to 4.6 per cent.”
Anthony Wells, head of European political and social research at pollster YouGov, said there is some evidence that voters are starting to think the government is delivering on the economy. But he cautioned that the shift should not be overstated: “It has gone from absolutely terrible to really, really bad”.
Holding an election in the autumn could allow Sunak to use the Conservative party conference in Birmingham in early October as a rally to kick off his campaign.
Some party strategists believe that an election in mid-November would allow Sunak to portray himself as a steady and reassuring leader if the November 5 US presidential elections end in Trump-related chaos.
The case against an autumn election
Hunt has cut national insurance from 12p to 8p in two fiscal events without any poll bounce whatsoever, so it is unclear whether another cut will make any difference. Even Sunak’s closest advisers admit to being sceptical.
Delaying an election for another six months would also allow more time for Conservative divisions and rumblings about Sunak’s leadership to surface and a sense of political decay to intensify.
Meanwhile Sunak’s promise to “Stop the Boats” could look somewhat threadbare if recent trends continue and there is another surge in migrants crossing the English Channel over the summer.
“Does anyone really think the Rwanda scheme will really be a deterrent?” asked one Tory MP. Sunak insists it will work. But a summer of small boats arriving in Kent might offer a “proof point” that it does not.
Although Sunak could delay holding an election until January 2025 — it must be held 25 working days after parliament has been dissolved — few believe he will wait that long. Tory MPs admit it would smack of desperation and few would relish a campaign in the depths of winter.
Additional reporting by Akila Quinio