Bleak Tory mood enlivens talk of summer election and confidence vote

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Good morning. I was wrong: I said a couple of weeks ago that I gave it until mid-April until speculation about a June election would get under way. Today, both ITV and the Mail report that Rishi Sunak is considering and/or being urged to consider a midsummer election.

Some thoughts on that — and why it might in the end not really be Sunak’s choice to make.

Curb your enthusiasm

Because I’m remorselessly cynical, my assumption is, no matter what Rishi Sunak or his aides might think in the abstract, the election will be held as late as possible. That is what governments do when the polls look bad. Just as in 1979, 1992, 1997 and 2010, the government will wait until the last possible moment. (Major held the 1992 election a month earlier than he needed to, because that coincided with when he first met his wife, Norma, but I don’t think that really counts as an exception to the rule.)

As both ITV and the Mail report, the mood in Downing Street is bleak and there is a lively debate about whether Sunak should go to the country in June or July. I think Sunak, when forced to decide, will end up choosing to go later — in November, December or January.

True, there is much to lose by waiting around and Sunak may suffer a worse defeat in the autumn than that he would face in the summer. But a heavy loss is certain on either date. Nobody is going to praise him for having the sense not to drag it out to the bitter end. Instead, he will be pilloried in his party for choosing to give up power earlier than he needed to, only adding to the damage his reputation has already suffered since becoming prime minister.

In addition, opting for summer means he would have chosen both not to wait to the last possible moment, but also to wait until after the local elections, when many Tory councillors will lose their seats. The pattern here is very clear: if you are a councillor for the governing party, you are much better off if your election happens on the same day as the general election. Going in June would mean that Sunak had cost hundreds of Tory councillors their seats in order to enjoy one measly month in power. That’s a pretty good way to end his political career with the act.

So I think it will still be an election at the last possible date.

But that word “possible” is worth thinking about. Jim Callaghan was unable to get all the way to the end of the parliament because his government had no majority and eventually collapsed at a time not of its own choosing. Rishi Sunak has a healthy majority but has a badly divided party.

For a confidence vote in his leadership to be triggered, all that needs to happen is for 52 Conservative MPs, whether due to panic, ambition, personal antipathy to Sunak or a combination of all three, to decide to call for one. I think it is pretty likely that there will be a confidence vote in Sunak’s leadership after the local elections.

It’s essentially impossible for any sitting Conservative prime minister to be removed from the party leadership via the confidence vote. As long as you retain the support of the government payroll and a handful of backbenchers, you can’t lose by that route. That’s a big part of why both Theresa May and Boris Johnson survived confidence votes. If you are at any risk of losing a confidence vote, it is because you have lost the support of a large enough number of your own ministers that you can’t actually govern anymore, ie. you are Boris Johnson in the summer of 2022, or because you have lost support among your party’s power brokers, ie. you are Theresa May in the spring of 2019.

From talking to both MPs and ministers, my sense is that there is no prospect of that happening to Sunak this side of an election. A confidence vote would be damaging, as it would further add to the general sense that the government is chaotic and smells of death, but it’s not going to remove Sunak as leader.

But the mood of MPs can shift very quickly: I remember very well how many Conservative MPs in late 2018 were saying that they would never back Boris Johnson to become prime minister because of his shortcomings as foreign secretary. One catastrophic set of local and European elections later and most of those MPs had changed their tune.

I don’t think Sunak will choose a midsummer election. But we cannot rule out the possibility that some crisis or panic in the Tory party will mean a date is chosen for him.

Now try this

I had a lovely dinner with my great-aunt and great-uncle last night. They had recommended going to see the Docklands Museum’s Fashion City exhibition, which tells the story of how Jewish East Enders have shaped global fashion. I’m very much looking forward to checking it out.

However you spend the long weekend, have a lovely one. We’re back on Tuesday.

Top stories today

• Water breach | Thames Water said its shareholders would no longer provide £500mn of fresh equity by the end of the month over fears that conditions imposed by the industry regulator make the company’s business plan “uninvestable”.

• Holed up | A green energy tycoon who plans to donate £5mn to the UK’s Labour party has been ordered by the High Court to inform his wife before he hands over more cash. Lawyers acting for Dale Vince’s wife, Kate, claimed during divorce proceedings that the businessman had kept her “in the dark” about his plans to fund the opposition party with donations from shared assets.

• No 10 accused of blocking ombudsman candidate | Downing Street has been accused of blocking the former parole board chair, who resigned over thwarted plans to release a serial sex offender, from becoming the parliamentary ombudsman.

• First cladding bill under new powers | Michael Gove has launched a legal action to force the landlord of a Canary Wharf apartment complex to pay £20.5mn towards building safety works, as the UK government increases efforts to pursue the owners of buildings for post-Grenfell remediation costs. 

Below is the Financial Times’ live-updating UK poll-of-polls, which combines voting intention surveys published by major British pollsters. Visit the FT poll-tracker page to discover our methodology and explore polling data by demographic including age, gender, region and more.