Russian forces closing in on the Ukrainian town of Avdiivka are an early test for Ukraine’s new top commander and for an army running short of ammunition and men as western military support falters.
The battle for the industrial town 20km north of the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk has been raging since October but fighting has intensified, with Russian troops last week breaking through Ukrainian defences on the northern and southern edges.
Instead of retreating from Avdiivka, where soldiers are already rationing ammunition amid supply shortages aggravated by the US’s failure to agree on fresh aid, Kyiv’s new commander-in-chief General Oleksandr Syrsky has sent reinforcements to the eastern Ukrainian town.
Ukraine was switching to a defensive strategy and the “goal of our operation is to exhaust the enemy, inflict maximum losses on him”, Syrsky told Germany’s ZDF television in an interview recorded before his appointment on February 8 but broadcast on Tuesday.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also pledged to give Avdiivka “maximum attention, maximum support”.
The move to shore up Avdiivka has drawn parallels with Ukraine’s dogged but ultimately unsuccessful defence last year of Bakhmut, a town 50km to the north.
Russia lost up to 30,000 men in its nine-month offensive, many of them fighters for the Wagner private military company of late warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin who later mutinied against Moscow.
The favourable casualty ratio Ukraine initially enjoyed narrowed as the battle wore on. It lost many experienced troops, which US officials said undermined its summer counteroffensive. Defending Avdiivka could prove similarly costly at a time when Ukraine’s army needs to replenish its ranks through mass mobilisation.
“In October and perhaps through December and early January, it could be argued Ukraine was inflicting disproportionate attrition on the Russian attackers,” Henry Schlottman, a military analyst, wrote on Substack. “Now, this argument is much harder to make.”
Kyiv’s grip on Avdiivka will be even harder to maintain because of the shortage in western artillery ammunition. Some units have already been forced to drastically reduce their firepower.
Russian urban warfare often involves destroying all buildings with artillery to deprive Ukrainian defenders of cover before sending in light assault forces. Without ammunition, Ukrainian cannot fire back at Russian artillery positions.
Until the arrival of additional Ukrainian troops over the weekend, it seemed a withdrawal of Kyiv’s forces was likely. Frontelligence Insight, an open source intelligence group with extensive links to the Ukrainian military, said the fall of Avdiivka was “not a matter of if, but when”.
“The situation in Avdiivka has worsened for Ukrainian forces, facing a gradual expulsion from defended residential areas amid a lack of effective countermeasures against Russian artillery,” the Frontelligence reported last month.
The Centre for Defence Strategies, a think-tank in Kyiv, said that Russia was close to capturing the town and that Ukrainian forces were facing an “increased encirclement threat”.
General Oleksandr Tarnavsky, commander of Ukraine’s forces in the south-east, said on Saturday that Russia was focusing its firepower on Avdiivka, with the aim of seizing Ukraine’s supply routes on the northern edge of the town.
In just 24 hours, Tarnavsky said, Russian forces had attacked his troops in Avdiivka with 17 air strikes, 57 assault missions and 599 artillery strikes. Russia has deployed special forces and elite assault troops in the area.
The fall of Avdiivka would hand Russian leader Vladimir Putin his most significant military victory since Bakhmut — and a timely one given Russia’s presidential elections on March 15-17.
Avdiivka is a gateway to nearby Donetsk, a city occupied by Russian forces and their proxies since 2014. The town was well fortified by Ukrainian troops and its defunct coal and chemical plant provided a formidable defensive position. But Russian advances from the east, south and north have made the town less tenable.
The loss of Avdiivka would make it harder for Ukraine to eventually recapture Donetsk, the largest city in the occupied Donbas region, and deprive Ukrainian artillery of a position to strike the city’s communication lines.
Schlottman cautioned that the deployment of Ukrainian reinforcements could still herald a withdrawal from Avdiivka but there were also “rational reasons” for Zelenskyy and Syrsky to try to hold it. It would allow time to prepare defensive positions further to the west. And it would provide a potent symbol of Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian forces, thereby boosting morale.
The question for the Ukrainian leader and his top commander is at what cost. They will have to strike a “tricky” balance between force preservation and inflicting more damage on the enemy than they suffer themselves while defending sovereign territory, said Mykola Bielieskov, research fellow at Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies, speaking in a personal capacity.
“I hope that the Ukrainian leadership has learned the lesson of weighing all considerations — military, political — when adopting decisions regarding a specific frontline segment,” he said.
Syrsky’s appointment as commander-in-chief prompted a backlash in parts of the Ukraine military, with some soldiers decrying his alleged willingness to expend the lives of his own troops for tactical gains. They also blame him, as commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, for delaying a withdrawal from Bakhmut after Zelenskyy made defending it a top priority.
Syrsky was also the general in charge of operations at Debaltseve in 2015, when 6,000 Ukrainian troops were encircled by Russian forces and their proxy militia and were forced into a chaotic retreat from the town north-east of Donetsk. More than 260 Ukrainian soldiers were killed.
The battle of Avdiivka would provide insights into how Syrsky can close the “gap between the desired political outcomes of his president with Ukraine’s dwindling military resources”, according to Mick Ryan, a retired Australian Army major-general and military strategist.
“Like Bakhmut, the president appears to not want to give up Avdiivka even if the military situation indicates a withdrawal may now be the best option to preserve the remaining fighters. Not giving up territory and preserving combat forces in the current environment will be very difficult to achieve.”