Stay informed with free updates
Simply sign up to the Geopolitics myFT Digest — delivered directly to your inbox.
Xi Jinping thinks that history is moving his way. Visiting Vladimir Putin in Moscow last March, China’s leader told the Russian president: “Right now, we’re seeing a change unseen in 100 years and we’re driving this change together.”
That exchange was heard around the world. Xi’s words were seen as a clear endorsement of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — and a suggestion that China, too, will soon play its part in “driving this change”. The implications for Taiwan were chilling, given China’s longstanding threats to invade the island.
Those invasion threats are, inevitably, back on the global agenda in the wake of this weekend’s Taiwanese presidential election. In the run-up to Saturday’s vote, the Chinese Communist party warned Taiwan’s voters to make the “right choice” between peace and war. But Taiwan made the “wrong” choice, as Beijing sees it — electing Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive party, who Beijing sees as a dangerous separatist.
There are some clear similarities between Taiwan’s perilous position and that of Ukraine before 2022.
The first is that both Putin and Xi regard Ukraine and Taiwan, respectively, as territory that rightfully belongs to their nation. Putin’s rhetorical acceptance of an independent Ukraine was insincere. And the drive to “reunify” Taiwan with the mainland is longstanding Chinese policy.
The second link is that both Putin and Xi argue Ukraine and Taiwan lack any real autonomy, and are being used as tools of a hegemonic and aggressive America. So reclaiming Ukraine/Taiwan for the motherland would serve a double purpose. It would fulfil the historic destiny of Russia/China. And successful invasions would strike a massive blow against US global power in two key theatres: Europe and Asia. Hence the changes “unseen in 100 years”.
The chance to be a world-historical figure is surely alluring for a strongman leader. And Putin and Xi fit that strongman mould. The Russian and Chinese leaders have both changed their country’s constitutions to extend their periods in power, probably for life. Both men have also encouraged a cult of personality and instilled fear in those around them.
Putin enjoys intimidating his closest acolytes on camera and has imprisoned, killed or driven into exile his most dangerous opponents. Xi has conducted repeated purges of China’s top leadership. The longer they are in power, the more the two leaders are liable to dwell on their own place in history.
That preoccupation with history has led both leaders to focus on the second world war. Putin has fetishised Russian victory in the “great patriotic war” against the Nazis. Xi, like Putin, claims a key role for China and the Communist party in defeating fascism.
Even as they insist that history is moving in their direction, both Putin and Xi betray some anxiety that events may actually be moving against them. The Russian leader’s decision to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was probably driven, in part, by a fear that Ukraine was slipping irrevocably out of Russia’s grasp. If he did not act quickly, he risked going down as the tsar who “lost Ukraine”.
There is a clear danger that Xi will come to the same conclusion about Taiwan. After eight years of a DPP presidency under Tsai Ing-wen, China hoped the recent election would see the pendulum swing back to the more pro-Beijing Kuomintang. Lai’s victory suggests that, on the contrary, the DPP is now Taiwan’s natural party of government.
That has grim long-term implications for China’s aspirations. The growing number of Taiwanese who identify primarily as Taiwanese, not Chinese, is also a concerning trend for Beijing. Once again, there are obvious parallels with Ukraine, where an increasing stress on Ukrainian culture offended and alarmed Russian nationalists.
But does that mean Xi will eventually decide that he has to follow Putin’s example and use force to achieve his personal and national ambitions?
The catastrophic costs that Russia has paid for its ill-fated invasion will surely give Xi pause. Chinese officials sometimes argue that their own forces are larger and more formidable than those of Russia. But Putin had a battle-hardened military at his disposal — which he had used successfully in Syria, Georgia and Chechnya. China has not gone to war since 1979 — and the top leadership of its military has been repeatedly purged for alleged corruption.
There is also a crucial difference in the position of America. The US government supported Ukraine’s independence, but President Joe Biden made it clear that the US would not go to war to defend the country. With Taiwan, the positions are reversed. America does not recognise Taiwanese independence and reiterated that position after this weekend’s election. But Biden has said repeatedly that the US would fight to defend Taiwan.
And then there is geography. Russia was able to invade Ukraine across a land border and still got bogged down. China would have to attempt an amphibious invasion, which is much harder.
Nonetheless, the US believes that Xi has told his forces to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. The task of Taiwan and America is to make sure — when that date rolls around — Xi decides that it is still too risky to invade. The Chinese leader may never see the “changes unseen for a century” that he dreams of.
Bid to have lunch with Gideon Rachman and all proceeds go to the FT’s charity, the Financial Literacy and Inclusion Campaign (FLIC)