At the Wisconsin Black Chamber of Commerce, in the heart of one of America’s politically pivotal swing states, Joe Biden spoke proudly of his record in office — one he hopes will propel him to re-election in 2024.
“All this groundbreaking work is producing groundbreaking results: record job creation, historic economic growth,” the president told the audience in the predominantly African-American neighbourhood of Milwaukee in mid-December. “We have among the lowest inflation rates of any major economy on this Earth.”
The economic data that Biden hailed has been one of the highlights of the year for the White House — inflation has eased, a recession was avoided, equity markets are near record highs, and even consumer sentiment is bouncing back.
Yet politically, the picture for Biden has darkened as he prepares to plunge into what is likely to be a fiercely contested re-election battle, most likely against former president Donald Trump — a race that already appears to be too close for comfort for many Democrats.
Just 39 per cent of Americans approve of Biden’s performance, according to the 538.com polling average, while 55 per cent disapprove — a 16 percentage point gap that has almost doubled since the start of 2023. Biden is also trailing Trump in polling for a general election match-up, according to the Realclearpolitics.com average.
The president’s struggles have triggered a whirlwind of discussion among Democrats about his capacity to win re-election next year — and whether anyone can do anything to change the dynamic.
Charlie Cook, a veteran non-partisan political analyst, said there were unnerving signs for Democrats that voters have soured on Biden for good, with little that the White House or the campaign will be able to do to shift sentiment.
Biden’s approval ratings have been stubbornly negative for more than two years, since the late summer of 2021, Cook emphasised. “There seems to be virtually no elasticity there,” he said. “I wonder whether people have just changed the channel — they’ve just written him off.”
Biden’s political troubles are rooted in concerns about his age — he is 81 — and his handling of the most important matters, from the economy to foreign policy to immigration. The exception is abortion, where he has the edge.
Even in areas where Biden has had success, such as record job growth and the wave of investment in domestic manufacturing, he does not appear to be getting credit for it. Biden’s steadfast support for Israel after the Hamas attacks on October 7 is a majority position in the US electorate — but has split the Democratic party and triggered concerns about low turnout among left-leaning voters.
“I don’t think that Biden has this wrapped up at all, and I think it’s perfectly possible that Trump could not only secure the nomination but win,” said William Howell, a professor of American politics at the University of Chicago.
But Howell warned it was too early to draw conclusions about the 2024 race, especially in light of Trump’s legal problems.
“There is a whole lot about this election that is exceptional, obviously, given who’s running and the environment in which they’re running, and the stakes that are involved.”
The White House and Biden’s supporters insist they still have a strong case to make for the president’s accomplishments.
“There’s a lot of grievances, there’s a lot of upset, but the economy is doing well,” said Gwen Moore, the Democratic congresswoman representing Milwaukee, who attended Biden’s event.
Voters are living through the “trauma” of Covid-19 and two wars, she said. But she argued that the US Federal Reserve is not going to raise interest rates any more and that investments spurred by Biden administration legislation would begin to yield fruit.
“The president has a glide path towards winning,” she added. “We’ve got to hit a space where people can smell the roses, because there’s a bouquet of them.”
Ben LaBolt, the White House communications director, wrote to reporters in mid December that “[Biden] has amassed one of the most impactful legislative records in generations, fought to grow our economy by rebuilding the economy from the bottom up and middle out, and delivered the strongest recovery in the developed world”.
Biden aides still argue that despite his grim approval numbers he remains the best candidate to defeat Trump — and that Democrats have been consistently outperforming polls and winning state and local elections, including performing better than expected in the midterm elections.
The president has already ratcheted up his attacks on Trump, who has recently lashed out at immigrants, prosecutors and his political opponents with racist and authoritarian language.
Trump was a threat to democracy, abortion rights, civil rights, voting rights “and America’s standing in the world”, Biden wrote on X on December 20. The Biden 2024 campaign has even accused Trump of parroting Adolf Hitler, for describing opponents as “vermin” and saying immigrants poison the “blood” of Americans.
Mike Lux, a Democratic strategist, acknowledged that Biden was “a little behind right now”, but said he remained optimistic.
“We do have some things we have to repair, we do have some things we have to be concerned about. But I also think that the fundamentals in this race are still more in our favour, as time goes on.”
US voters had a “vague memory” that the economy was “pretty good” under Trump in the days before Covid struck, Lux said. But in focus groups, “the more people think about Trump, the more they see videos of him speaking, the more they read the words, the more they react against it”.
In Colorado and Maine, Trump has now been denied access to the Republican primary ballot on constitutional grounds, for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results, including fuelling the January 6 2021 attack on the US Capitol. The moves could be overturned by the US Supreme Court, if it decides to weigh in.
Still, for Cook, Biden’s electoral weakness has reached a point that Democrats might want to gamble on a change in nominee.
While many Democrats like to compare the 2024 election to 2012, when Barack Obama overcame a polling slump to win re-election, Cook warns that the 1968 and 1980 races offer better comparisons. Republicans won back the White House in both.
“The mood is as sour as it was in 1980. And the country is even more divided than it was in 68,” he said. “[Biden] has done enough to have a really outstanding legacy. But will his legacy be handing the White House back over to Donald Trump?”