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The US, the UK and France are exploring ways to convince Hizbollah to pull back from the Lebanon-Israel border in a diplomatic push to prevent a full-blown conflict erupting between the militant group and Israel.
Under the initiative, western officials have been talking to Lebanon and Israel in an attempt to get both countries to implement a long-ignored UN resolution, known as 1701, which requires the Iran-backed militant group to withdraw its fighters from the border region.
One element under discussion would give Lebanon’s army a bigger role in the area in an attempt to establish a buffer between the militant group and the border.
“People can see what a solution would look like, but getting there is very difficult,” said a western diplomat. “You need to get Israel and Hizbollah to stop fighting first, and you need to get Hizbollah to acquiesce.”
Israeli forces and Hizbollah have engaged in almost daily exchanges of fire since the war between Hamas and Israel erupted on October 7. The clashes have fuelled concerns of a broader regional conflagration, and caused the Jewish state to evacuate tens of thousands of people from its border region.
As a consequence, and in the wake of Hamas’s attack, Israel has warned that it can no longer accept the presence of Hizbollah forces on its northern frontier. It has threatened to act militarily if the 2006 UN resolution is not enforced.
To prevent an escalation, US, UK and French officials have held talks with Israel and Beirut about ways to implement 1701, including bolstering the presence and resources of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) in southern Lebanon, said people briefed on the talks.
The hope is that a deal would ultimately lead to Hizbollah — the dominant political and military force in Lebanon — agreeing to pull its forces back from the border.
The ideas being discussed include strengthening Unifil, the UN force stationed in southern Lebanon, and an effort to formally demarcate the ‘Blue Line’ that represents the de facto boundary between Israel and Lebanon in the absence of an officially-agreed border.
People briefed on the discussions cautioned they were at an early stage and there were significant hurdles to overcome. Some officials said the talks were co-ordinated, others said the US, the UK and French were holding separate discussions with the parties.
A Lebanese official said resolution 1701 could provide a “road map” for discussions. But he added that any deal would have to address Beirut’s concerns about Israeli violations of 1701, including incursions into the Arab state’s airspace, and Israel’s presence in about a dozen disputed areas.
“What the Israelis are trying to do is use their war in Gaza as a lever to try to pre-empt us or pressure us — it won’t work,” the official said. “So what we are saying is let’s think constructively, put 1701 on the table and see who is violating it, and let’s try and reinvigorate its implementation.”
Hizbollah is one of the world’s most heavily armed non-state actors, and withstood a 34-day conflict with Israel in 2006. The UN resolution brokered a ceasefire after that war, which had largely held until October.
The Shia movement is deeply entrenched in southern Lebanon, where many of its fighters are from, which would complicate efforts for a complete withdrawal. Demarcating the land border and recognising Israel — which has never had diplomatic relations with Lebanon — could also erode Hizbollah’s raison d’être as a resistance movement.
But Israeli officials have made clear they expect Hizbollah to pull back its fighters as required by resolution 1701, which only allows for the presence of Lebanese state forces and Unifil between the Blue Line and the Litani river, some 30km inside Lebanon.
Israel’s national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi on Saturday said people evacuated from northern Israel during the past two months would not return if they feared Hizbollah’s forces could launch attacks in the area, as Hamas did in the south on October 7.
Diplomats and officials say Hizbollah would never commit to a full retreat from southern Lebanon. But Israel has particularly focused on Hizbollah’s Radwan force, an elite unit of a few thousand fighters, diplomats said.
Lebanese officials and people close to Hizbollah emphasise that the group is not actively seeking a wider regional war. Some hope this could make it more open to negotiating a deal; Hizbollah accepted the delineation of Israel and Lebanon’s maritime border last year.
“Hizbollah’s position is like its position during the maritime border negotiations — they did not say we endorse it, but they did not say they were against it. And ultimately, a deal was done,” said one person close to the talks.
Hizbollah did not respond to a request for comment.
Another challenge is the weakness of the Lebanese armed forces, which lack the resources and funding to expand its operations to the south. One person involved in the talks suggested western countries might support the LAF with weapons and training as part of any deal.
Lebanon’s military has been severely hampered by the country’s crippling financial crisis. It is dependent on financial aid from the US, Qatar and some European states, which has helped stem the tide of soldiers fleeing its ranks over slashed pay.