Mortgage demand started this year stronger than it did last year, even though interest rates are higher. Total mortgage application volume last week was 7% higher than the same week one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) increased to 7.09% from 6.99%, with points decreasing to 0.65 from 0.68 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment. That rate was 34 basis points lower one year ago.
“Bond yields in the U.S. and abroad continued to move higher in response to concerns over a sticky inflation outlook and still too-high budget deficits, which pushed mortgage rates higher for the fifth consecutive week. The 30-year fixed rate is now at 7.09% — its highest level since May 2024,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist.
Applications to refinance a home loan were 22% higher than the same week one year ago. While it might not make sense that there would be more refinance demand at higher interest rates, the volumes are so low right now that percentages are skewed much larger.
Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home were 2% lower than the same week one year ago. Buyers are seeing more inventory on the market, but prices are still stubbornly high. Much of the inventory increase can be attributed to houses sitting longer on the market, rather than new listings.
Weekly comparisons for mortgage applications last week are outsized due to the holidays and not indicative of the state of the market.
“This time of the year is a particularly volatile time for application volumes, so it can be more helpful to focus on the level rather than the percent change,” Kan added.
Mortgage rates are essentially flat to start this week but could make a significant move Wednesday in either direction when the Consumer Price index, the latest read on inflation, is released.