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Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world
The writer is co-founder of LinkedIn, co-founder at Inflection AI and a partner at Greylock
As the US prepares for a shift in leadership that will massively impact how America does business, there are many reasons for optimism. Once again, Donald Trump will be inheriting a strong Democrat-engineered economy. During Joe Biden’s presidency, full-time employment has surged. GDP growth has been robust. Average hourly earnings are on an upward trajectory.
The Chips Act is also set to have a sweeping impact. With its focus on reshoring US semiconductor production, it has allocated major funding for projects in Arizona, Texas, Ohio, Utah and other states. This will create thousands of new jobs and improve US global competitiveness.
I put significant effort into electing vice-president Kamala Harris. Nevertheless, I am hopeful that president-elect Trump will build upon Biden’s work and reduce inflation, enable high-tech innovation and increase investment in US business.
Some of my peers in Silicon Valley who supported Trump in this election did so in the belief that his administration will strike a pronounced innovation-friendly stance. If they’re right, and I hope they are, then we should see more competition, faster improvement and fewer efforts to dictate goals and outcomes in complex, fast-evolving high-tech industries.
Trump’s administration will probably stop the chill put on M&A in the tech sector by the current Federal Trade Commission; this would be a great thing for start-up innovation and scale-up investment. With the developments regarding the Department of Government Efficiency, it appears that the Trump administration may even expand on the “one in, two out” deregulatory posture of his first term. (If you want a new regulation, you must eliminate two existing ones). If managed effectively, such ambitious restructuring could create great opportunities for innovation and new business.
In the coming years, with demand projected to skyrocket from artificial intelligence and other domestic needs, America’s energy independence will be key. So we must adopt an efficient regulatory environment for developing solutions. The faster we can ready new nuclear power plants and other new energy, the faster we can reduce our reliance on fossil fuels and reliably meet the energy demands of millions of people in sustainable fashion. I anticipate cutting through a lot of red tape on energy for the power we need for AI — and that would be incredibly positive.
Another reason that some, especially in Silicon Valley, supported Trump was because of his pro-crypto posture. The thought is that he will move away from the generally anti-crypto stance, with unclear rules, that the Biden administration pursued. This would be fantastic. Ending arbitrary enforcement policies against the cryptocurrency industry would create a much more stable environment for blockchain innovation and fostering secure, decentralised financial systems.
However, the administration’s potential approach to crypto also highlights some key worries. Will Trump’s pro-crypto stance ensure the general rule of law for all companies? Or will he mostly use his new embrace of crypto, and his regulatory authority over it, as a way to privilege a few favoured coins?
And that’s just the start of my worries for American and global business. In his first term, Trump targeted a number of iconic US companies for personal and political reasons, creating constant chaos and uncertainty.
Because of advances in AI, we’re moving into an era where the federal government’s relationship with America’s leading tech companies is two-fold. First, the government must make prudent regulatory moves — which broadly means aiming for a permissionless innovation approach that allows US companies to stay globally competitive. Second, the federal government itself must increase its own use of AI and other technologies in ways that make it more efficient and productive — and more tuned to the needs of serving citizens.
On this count, I fear that things will be very challenging. While Trump campaigned on the promise of making America more unilateral and insular, I continue to believe a pluralistic, multilateral approach is what creates innovation and prosperity in an increasingly networked world.
That extends to AI. In contrast, I expect the administration will adopt a mercantilist AI policy that will bar long-standing global allies from accessing US models, infrastructure, and technology. With direct ownership in the fledgling AI start-up xAI, Elon Musk, who is advising Trump in many domains, has a serious conflict of interest in terms of setting federal AI policies for all US companies. Using his position to favour xAI in any way, such as awarding it government contracts, encouraging federal agencies to unfairly target AI companies, or imposing new regulations that limit exports will come at the expense of US technological, economic and cultural security and competitiveness.
More broadly, though, I very much hope that Trump succeeds wildly in enabling US entrepreneurship and innovation, increasing wages for workers and creating a country where every American is free to pursue their ambitions with dignity, purpose and a sense of belonging. That’s why I will continue to do everything I can to build the next generation of companies that bring life-changing opportunities for individuals and society.