While most of the attention remains riveted on the presidential election, the winds of change will also be blowing through the states in ways that may not parallel federal elections and which can significantly impact public finance at the state and local levels.
“When you’re looking at the top of the ticket nationwide, that does not necessarily translate into results at the state legislative level,” said Ben Williams, associate director of the National Council of State Legislators, Elections and Redistricting team.
“A result going a certain way at the top of the ticket does not mean you should assume that there will be a parallel result.”
NCSL
The comments came during one of NCSL’s Base Camp sessions and references the Democrats losing 2% of their state legislative seats in 2020, despite winning the presidential race and both houses of Congress.
Counting the territories, NCSL pegs the state numbers at 5,808 legislative seats out of a total of 7,386 that will be decided next week, assuming there are no delays or recounts.
Highly competitive races include both chambers in the key battleground states of Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
According to NCSL there are 37 ballot measures related to taxes or bonds on the ballot.
“We are on par with the high numbers that we saw in 2016 and 2018,” said Helen Brewer, a policy specialist on NCSL’s Elections and Redistricting team. “As always, we see many ballot measures related to taxes.”
“The proportion of different types of ballot measures has been pretty consistent across all of these even-numbered years for the last 10 years, even as the overall numbers have changed.”
Washington State is looking to repeal its capital gains tax which levies a 7% tax on the sale or exchange of long-term capital assets, including stocks, bonds, and business interests.
In New Mexico, voters will decide on the possibility of issuing $30.75 million in bonds to pay for upgrades on senior living communities. The Land of Enchantment is also weighing bond measures to fund education, libraries, and public safety radio communication systems.
California has three bond measures on the ballot aimed at funding parks, public education, and behavioral health services.
Rhode Island is deciding on investing in education, housing, infrastructure and cultural arts.
Maine is requesting funds for scientific research, historic buildings, and trail maintenance.
According to Open Secrets, over $417 million was raised for this election cycle by committees supporting or opposing 159 statewide ballot issues, many of which deal with abortion rights, marijuana legalization, and housing.
Governors’ races are trending towards maintaining the status quo of 27 Republicans and 23 Democrats.
Eleven governorships are up for grabs with New Hampshire currently trending as the only toss-up. The race is between two women, former U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte, representing the Republicans and Democrat Joyce Craig, the former mayor of Manchester. One of them will succeed Republican Chris Sununu, who is not seeking a fifth term.
At the state level having one party controlling both houses of legislature and the governor’s chair is the current state of normal.
“More people live in a Republican trifecta, where Republicans hold both chambers of the legislature and the governorship, or a Democratic trifecta than they do in states that have some government that’s split between the two parties,” said Williams.