Debates about UK education policy can sometimes seem about as insightful as a chat in the pub. Even Boris Johnson complained, while shadow universities minister, of political “saloon bar analysis”. But the answer to one of the latest burning education questions — can prime minister Rishi Sunak’s promise of maths classes to the age of 18 be delivered? — might well be found at the bottom of a beer barrel. Or rather in the annals of the Guinness brewery’s history.
The concept of statistical significance was developed in the early 1900s by the Guinness chief brewer, William Seeley Gosset, as he experimented with yeast and barley to evaluate how to produce the best beer. Over a century later, the UK population is shaky on ideas of probability. Even the Covid inquiry judge, Baroness Hallett, admitted: “I confess to struggling with graphs myself on occasion”. The hearings have revealed that Johnson himself found understanding data “a real struggle”.
Sunak is proposing compulsory maths in the curriculum right up to the new, later school leaving age, as part of his plan to replace A-levels with a broader diploma, put out for consultation this week. He wants to tackle Britain’s low numeracy levels — the most comprehensive survey to date found nearly half of all over-16s had skills at the level expected of a nine to 11-year-old while the National Numeracy charity estimates an annual cost to the economy of £25bn.
Ideas are fermenting for how Sunak’s plan for the over-16s could work. Some suggest an emphasis on interpreting statistics and working with data — even more essential for today’s industries than they were for the pioneering Guinness brewer. Understanding stats has become crucial even in navigating the daily news.
As Professor Alf Coles of Bristol University told me: “Floods, fires, you name it, mass migration — mathematics is hugely implicated in these things, in modelling, in predicting, in communicating climate change.”
David Thomas, former headteacher and CEO of MESME, a maths and social mobility charity, agrees that there is mileage in teaching such concepts to the 16-18 age group. “Something is wrong if you leave school not knowing what statistical significance is,” he says.
But like many educationalists, he questions whether Sunak’s focus on post-16 adds up. He also worries about the counterproposal from Bridget Phillipson, Labour’s shadow education secretary, who wants to focus on maths in primary school and nurseries. For Thomas, this blizzard of reform proposals masks problems that blight pupils in the middle. He has uncovered concerning patterns of underachievement at the transition to secondary school: of those kids from poorer homes who score top in maths tests when they leave primary school, nearly half are missing out on the top two grades by the time they reach GCSE.
Marcus du Sautoy, mathematician and Oxford professor for the public understanding of science, agrees, arguing that while primary maths has been steadily improving in English schools, it all goes wrong between 11 and 14. “Kids come out of primary fired up by maths, raring to go and suddenly we bore the pants off them,” he complains, telling me that he got excited by maths at the age of 12 at his own state comprehensive school. “We’re not being brave enough with that age group.”
And surveys confirm what parents fear: that pupils can become completely turned off in these first years of secondary, joining the massed ranks of the maths-haters. When research from the Royal Society shows that an important determinant of maths success is attitude, this is a huge and unjust waste of potential in clever, poorer kids.
At the booze-fuelled political conferences a few weeks ago, the education chat proved to be of a higher calibre than the saloon bar debates Johnson complained of. Some found the prime minister’s maths crusade irritating, citing a severe shortage of specialist teachers. But others were intrigued — exam board AQA proposed a new numeracy qualification, more like a practical music exam or driving test, with proof of competence at escalating levels. Taken at any age, this could act as a number skills certificate for employers — and end the misery of endless GCSE resits for those who don’t secure a pass at first or even second attempt.
For now, those resits are often one of the only reasons maths lessons do continue past age 16. It would be cheering to imagine Sunak and Phillipson might meet over a festive drink (non-alcoholic for the teetotal prime minister) to consider how a joint plan, one that might last beyond the coming election, could multiply the benefits of all this attention on maths. That’s what we really need. But what’s the statistical probability?