As Donald Trump flew from New Jersey to Florida on Monday to face the federal justice system, he vowed to exact political revenge for his historic indictment on charges of mishandling classified documents.
In a scorching social media post, Trump said that, if elected to the White House again in 2024, he would appoint his own “real special prosecutor” to “go after” Joe Biden and his “crime family”.
The comments marked a rhetorical escalation against the sitting US president and America’s democratic norms and brought clarity to Trump’s political strategy in the face of the charges on which he will be arraigned in a Miami court on Tuesday.
Far from hunkering down to focus on his legal defence, Trump seems intent on winning over jurors and the public — especially Republican primary voters — by casting himself as an unfairly persecuted martyr even if it risks raising the political heat again in a way that could fuel violence.
“When attacked or investigated, he ramps up his attacks on the investigator, discredits the issue and spreads counter-disinformation, and stokes fury and anger within his base,” said Julian Zelizer, a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University. “He is being too defiant but this is how he has continued to respond to major moments of political peril.”
The increasingly tense atmosphere leading into Trump’s arraignment in Florida has already raised concerns in Miami of protests and violence surrounding the courthouse on Tuesday. An array of police personnel and sniffer dogs were sweeping the area around the Wilkie D. Ferguson, Jr federal courthouse on Monday even as authorities said no credible threats had been identified.
Manuel Morales, the Miami police chief, said his force was prepared for anywhere from 5,000 to 50,000 protesters. “Make no mistake about it — we’re taking this event extremely serious. We know that there is a potential of things taking a turn for the worse.”
During his first public rally since his federal indictment was unsealed, Trump on Saturday declared that “our people are angry” and a “final battle” was under way to save the country — echoing some of the bellicose phrases he used ahead of the January 6 2021 attack on the US Capitol.
“In the end, they’re not coming after me, they’re coming after you — and I’m just standing in their way,” he told supporters in Columbus, Georgia.
At the same event, Kari Lake, the defeated Republican candidate for Arizona governor in 2022 and one of Trump’s most loyal allies, ominously noted that many of his supporters are gun owners.
“If you want to get to President Trump, you’re going to have to go through me, and you’re going to have to go through 75mn Americans just like me,” she said. “And I’m going to tell you, most of us are card-carrying members of the NRA [National Rifle Association]. That’s not a threat — that’s a public service announcement.”
Such remarks have fuelled worries about broader unrest beyond Miami throughout the summer as the former president’s legal problems continue to play out. In addition to the federal case in Florida, Trump is facing charges in Manhattan of falsifying business records connected to hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels, and is being probed at both the federal level and the state level in Georgia for his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election.
“He’s all but calling for a revolution,” Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution think-tank in Washington. “He wants people to come demonstrate at the courthouse, he sees himself as a little dictator, and he gets worse and worse.”
The former president’s aides and allies insist that his stance is not just justified but will help him politically. Trump comfortably tops national polls for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, with the first ballots due to be cast early next year. Ron DeSantis, the Florida Republican governor and his closest rival, is trailing by double-digits.
“[Trump] is able to play the narrative that he is the victim of a deep state and of Joe Biden employing Putin tactics by putting the opposition in jail,” said Bryan Lanza, a Republican strategist and a former Trump communications aide who is now at Mercury, an advisory firm in Washington.
Lanza added that Trump could benefit from a perception among American voters that Democrats have “over-reached” in supporting judicial cases against Trump. “There is no way on earth the American public wants the former president to serve 400 years [in jail],” Lanza said, referring to the total prison term that Trump faces if convicted on all counts, although in all likelihood any sentences would run concurrently.
Meanwhile, one Republican operative close to Trump, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said his team would “try everything they can to slow down the trial”, which would give the former president even more of a window to deliver his political messages before any verdict is handed down.
Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist in Florida, said: “[The federal indictment] weighs on him in a general election. It does not weigh on him in a Republican primary.”
But others are not so sure. “As democracy plays out we’re going to see the dark hysteria of Trump and his movement but we’re also going to see other Republicans trying to displace him,” said Kamarck. “They are going to walk on tiptoes but they are going to show they are a better alternative.”
After landing at Miami airport, Trump headed to his Doral golf club in the city, where he was greeted by supporters waving signs and flags. Following his court appearance on Tuesday, he is expected to fly back to Bedminster, New Jersey, the residence he often uses in the summer, to make a statement on the day’s proceedings and hold a fundraiser.
Yet many worry about what Trump’s indictment and his reaction to it will mean for American democracy more broadly. “To have a former president on such a constant rampage against the legal system is dangerous and can have long-term consequences,” said Princeton’s Zelizer. “These battles will resonate long after he is gone, and building trust in an already problematic and frail system will not be easy.”