The writer is author of ‘Extra Time: Ten Lessons for an Ageing World’
The news this week that India’s population is forecast to overtake that of China’s is a powerful psychological moment. Not for three centuries, since the Mughal Empire outnumbered the Qing Dynasty, has India been bigger than its rival. The Chinese Communist party fears that China, whose population is undergoing a rapid contraction, may get old before it gets rich. Western fears of stagnation are leading to anguished debates about immigration and calls for ‘pronatalist’ policies. But governments everywhere should resist the temptation to weaponise population.
Demographic changes are demolishing old certainties. One minute we are fretting about 8bn humans wreaking havoc on the planet. The next, we are starting to panic that falling birth rates and ageing populations will slow economies and erode civilisations. In Japan I have sat in anguished debates about the possible extinction of the race. In America — which until now has been an exception to the ageing, rich world — I talk to policymakers who worry that immigrant groups are ceasing to fuel the nation because they don’t have as many children as they once did.
India’s expanding workforce is envied by greying nations. Forty per cent of its population are under 25, and roughly 1 in 5 of the world’s under 25-year olds live there. Its median age of 28 contrasts favourably with 38 in the US, and 39 in China. But this huge and youthful pool will only be a blessing for their country if they can find jobs.
India has a burgeoning middle class and is a global leader in IT, making it well-positioned to win investment from companies seeking to diversify away from China. But the jump to high-end manufacturing, which propelled countries like Taiwan and South Korea to prosperity, has so far been elusive in a nation where almost half the workforce still works on the land, and 46 per cent of adults over 25 didn’t finish primary school. And its appeal as a democratic counterweight could decline under prime minister Narendra Modi’s repressive policies.
Around the world, the race is on to secure demographic dividends before falling birth rates drag on economic growth. But many growing countries — from India to Egypt to Nigeria — may struggle to achieve the kind of demographic dividend reaped by the Asian tigers unless they can also make productivity gains. Africa’s raw materials could be a boon to the continent but for the moment, China is using its heft to secure resources there, establish influence and offset its own ageing profile.
In the coming decade, countries across the board will strive to maintain GDP per capita as population growth slows. Canada has just welcomed the highest number of immigrants in its history, as part of a strategy to offset its low birth rate. Western European countries are raising retirement ages.
The fear is that we may be on the verge of a vicious cycle. If governments charge shrinking workforces more tax to support the elderly, younger citizens may find it progressively less affordable to have children. As nations grapple with demography, a growing number are adopting formal policies to either raise or lower fertility. Of the world’s 197 nations, 69 have goals to reduce the birth rate, and 74 have goals to either raise or maintain it.
The danger comes when countries which are losing demographic ground start to put unacceptable pressure on women to bear children. Both India and China have been seeking to control fertility for decades: India was the first country in the world to have a national family planning policy, which it launched in 1952, while China implemented its one-child policy in 1980. Both nations imposed brutal measures to restrict family size in pursuit of development goals. These have had far reaching repercussions. Despite dropping its one-child policy in 2016, the Chinese Communist party has been unable to reverse the trend. In India, most of the growth is driven by only 5 of its 36 states.
It is important to remember that human beings are not factors of production. The modern story of falling birth rates is largely one of female liberation. Many democracies are now paying “baby bonuses” to help with childcare costs. But nastier regimes can revert quickly to more repressive methods. In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has denounced family planning and said mothers have a responsibility to provide descendants. In Iran, child marriage is on the rise. Russia has revived the “mother heroine” award for women who have ten or more children.
Commenting on India’s milestone versus China, the UNFPA, the UN’s sexual and reproductive health agency, has called for a global emphasis on the quality of life, not the quantity of people. It has also found that countries without policies seeking to boost fertility rates score much more highly on indices of human freedom than those which do.
Governments fear losing influence in the world if their populations don’t keep pace with those of their rivals, and they fear stalling economic growth. For starters, they must accelerate alternatives to boosting births. Keeping citizens healthier into old age enables them to work longer. Investing in technology and skills can maximise the potential of existing populations. Adopting pro-migration policies can re-energise a society, as long as it’s combined with concerted efforts at integration.
The headlines which greeted India’s leap forward were couched in macho language about “overtaking” and “relegating”, showing how much the cold hard science of demography is bound up with the psychology of “winning”. But big is not always best — as the coming decade may show.