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Foreign secretary David Lammy has swung his support behind Lord Peter Mandelson to become the next UK ambassador to the US, helping cement the former trade secretary’s position as the frontrunner in the race to succeed Dame Karen Pierce.
Downing Street officials say a decision is likely to be made by next month and that a political appointment is now likelier than a civil service pick.
Donald Trump’s victory in the American presidential election last week has sharpened Number 10’s calculation about the kind of candidate needed — and bolstered the need for someone with Mandelson’s credentials as a trade expert.
Lammy is maintaining a public silence about his preference for the ambassador post, but is now privately rooting for Mandelson, according to two people with knowledge of the foreign secretary’s position. A spokesman for Lammy declined to comment.
Mandelson, who is a close political ally of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, is a Labour party veteran who held high office the last time the party was in power and was also previously European commissioner for trade.
Trump has threatened to raise tariffs on US imports, potentially tilting the world into a fresh trade war.
Pierce, whose term has already been extended once, is expected to remain in post to handle the transition between outgoing US President Joe Biden and Trump, before a successor takes over shortly after the presidential inauguration in January, according to UK government officials.
One senior Labour figure said Mandelson was “incredibly close” to McSweeney, who was recently appointed as the prime minister’s chief of staff, replacing Sue Gray: “Given Morgan is now in a very strong position in Number 10 that bodes well for Peter’s chances.”
However, McSweeney is understood to have stayed out of the current deliberations to avoid any conflict of interest.
Mandelson is also an old ally of Pat McFadden, the influential Cabinet Office minister, who was his deputy in the business department 15 years ago.
One Number 10 official said any decision would be based on merit rather than personal loyalty, noting that Mandelson had almost unparalleled experience on trade matters. Downing Street declined to comment.
Mandelson is viewed as having taken the lead ahead of three other potential political appointments widely touted as being in the running for the role: former UK foreign secretary David Miliband, former UK development secretary Baroness Valerie Amos and former European foreign affairs commissioner, Baroness Cathy Ashton.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is thought to favour Miliband and met the former foreign secretary on a visit to New York in August.
Mandelson is simultaneously in contention for ceremonial role of Oxford chancellor, for which voting begins on November 18. Despite the distances involved, one ally of Mandelson suggested he could occupy both roles, pointing to the example of Chris Patten, who was Oxford chancellor while also chair of the BBC.
Mandelson told the BBC on Sunday “that nobody has spoken to me about this job”. He added the UK should pursue a “digital and technological economic agreement” between the two countries rather than an “old-fashioned sort of free trade agreement of goods and mortar”.
People close to the process say another extension to Pierce’s term has not been ruled out, given her success in building deep links with Maga-aligned Republicans.
Nicknamed the “Trump Whisperer” in British diplomatic circles, she is credited with lining Starmer up for one of the first phone calls with Trump following his win last week, and for organising the intimate dinner between Starmer, Trump and Lammy in New York in September.
She has also been praised for assisting then UK foreign secretary Lord David Cameron in meeting Trump at Mar-a-Lago in April to help unlock Republican support for US aid to Ukraine, as well as the UK embassy leading a well-resourced delegation to the Republican convention this summer.
“Keeping Karen there would clearly have its merits given how she’s maintained good relations with the Trump people,” said one Labour person. “She’s more political than a typical diplomat.”
They added: “The four political names we have are really good and would be fantastic if anyone else was president, but . . . maybe they should look elsewhere.”
The resignation of Sir Philip Barton, permanent secretary at the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office earlier this month has also triggered new jockeying for position.
Some diplomats believe Pierce could be in line to replace him at the helm of the department, while others are tipping Sir Matthew Rycroft, permanent secretary at the Home Office, and Dame Barbara Woodward, the UK’s envoy to the UN.