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Humza Yousaf’s resignation is not merely a story of personal political incompetence, although it does take some beating on that score. It also highlights a dangerous reality for his Scottish National party. They no longer set the narrative for Scotland’s politics. Instead they have become the story.
The SNP now presides over an exhausted Scottish government, haunted by many policy failures and about to be on its third leader in two years. Sound familiar?
Under Nicola Sturgeon’s ruthless hand, political dominance and communication skills, the SNP skated over its many problems; the fact that it was divided between progressives and social and economic conservatives; the public policy failures that were becoming evident to all; and finally the issues that have now led to a police investigation and her husband being charged in connection with the alleged embezzlement of funds.
Sturgeon kept all this subdued by subordinating it to a constant campaign for independence. It was only when she was unable to offer a path to a new referendum that momentum stalled. Her departure last March unleashed all the forces she had kept down.
As continuity candidate, Yousaf carried all that baggage but with few of her political skills. His critics called him Humza Useless and Humza the Brief and he played a bad hand dreadfully, leaping from one strategy to the next. Patently the criminal investigation did immense damage but he also had to face a resurgent Labour party, growing evidence of governmental failures and SNP divisions bursting into the open.
Policy failures included Scottish education standards falling further behind England’s and record drug deaths. More damaging still were a series of progressive policy positions which alienated voters, including a new gender recognition bill, a rushed recycling scheme and new hate crime laws. No matter that some of these — including gender rights — had cross-party support, the SNP has carried the can.
At the heart of many of the unpopular measures was the political alliance with the Scottish Greens, negotiated by Sturgeon. This guaranteed the SNP a majority in Holyrood, and gave ministerial jobs to the Green leaders. But the price was many of the policies that cost Yousaf support.
When the Greens scheduled a vote on whether to dissolve the deal, over his retreat from unreachable climate targets, Yousaf jumped before he could be pushed, scrapping the deal and sacking their ministers. To him this demonstrated leadership. It actually demonstrated innumeracy. The SNP does not have a majority in Holyrood, so when opponents called a vote of no confidence in him, and the spurned Greens said they would support it, he found himself without the numbers to survive. This possibility had apparently not occurred to him.
There was a case in terms of political positioning for breaking with the Greens and seeking to win back more conservatively-minded nationalists. But Yousaf so mishandled this that the furious Greens turned on him.
The weekend was thus spent in a pathetic effort to make up with the Greens. The only alternative was to be held hostage by Alex Salmond’s breakaway Alba party, another unthinkable position, especially since its only MSP was Ash Regan, whose defection Yousaf dismissed as “no great loss”. It turns out he needed her vote to survive.
Either of those options made Yousaf and the SNP look weak and ridiculous. By Monday it was clear he had to go. But the candidates to replace him all come with baggage. Kate Forbes, his defeated rival last time, is the standout figure but may be unacceptable to the left, not least for her strong religious beliefs. She would also not be welcomed by the Greens, which some in the party will see as a benefit, but their votes are still needed for legislation in Holyrood. Neil Grey, health secretary, would be the continuity candidate, as to a degree would Jenny Gilruth, education secretary. But continuity is perhaps not the solution. Stephen Flynn, the SNP leader at Westminster, is well rated by his colleagues but is not — yet — an MSP and would need to be.
The simplest path may be an interim leader such as John Swinney, former deputy leader and finance minister. As well as offering stability and reassurance, he will be better placed to heal the breach with the Greens, which is now a numerical necessity.
Yet the core problem remains that political gravity has caught up with the SNP. After years of making the dominant political narrative about independence, it is now about the SNP’s failures in government. In the general election the defining choice is less about independence than removing the Conservatives. Whoever takes over as party leader must offer a way to restore momentum by mapping out a path to a new referendum. Otherwise it will all be about the SNP’s dismal record.
There is one important ray of hope for the party however. For all its troubles, support for independence has rarely fallen below the high 40s in opinion polls. There is a solid bedrock of support if the party can find a way to get back on track.
But first it faces a reckoning in the looming general election. Polls suggest the SNP could lose tens of seats and even cease to be Scotland’s largest party at Westminster. A period in the doldrums damages independence because calls for a new vote are predicated on nationalists winning a majority at Holyrood. But the cause it champions remains strong. Those toasting the end of separatism should not become intoxicated by that belief.