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If there is anything close to an iron law in politics it is that people will not vote for parties that do not seem to like them. Yet Britain’s Conservatives often seem to dislike much of the nation they rule.
The Tories increasingly sound like mourners at their own funeral, angrily denouncing the state of the country they have governed for 14 years. Ministers, MPs and media outriders fume in language that suggests contempt for a large part of the population.
Nowhere is this more obvious than in the visceral berating of the capital. Barring an enormous shock, they are set for their third consecutive defeat in next week’s London mayoral election. Taylor Swift’s break-up track “So Long, London” could be the campaign song.
This is not merely about the mayoralty, though it is a contest where they should be competitive and which may still be closer than polls suggest. Sadiq Khan, the Labour incumbent, is seeking a third term on a relatively patchy record under recently introduced and less favourable first-past-the-post electoral system and amid particular anger at what is depicted as his anti-motorist agenda. The national tide may simply be too strong for any Tory in this Remainer citadel — though more Londoners voted for Brexit than they did for Khan in the last election. But with the right candidate he might be vulnerable.
Yet the Tories have not bothered finding that candidate. London skews left but the Tories have traditional strength in outer boroughs. Boris Johnson’s mayoral wins were built on that but also his obvious affection for the city. After an early plan to pick a modern-minded challenger collapsed amid groping allegations, Tories chose Susan Hall, whose spiky but ineffective pitch will struggle beyond the suburban base.
There may be worse to come at the general election, where all the Tories’ central London seats and many suburban strongholds are at risk as younger families move outwards in search of affordable homes.
It was not always so. David Cameron and Johnson were both obviously of the city. Cameron’s close allies were known as the Notting Hill set and they used totemic issues such as gay marriage or environmentalism to project a modern image. They were still Tories but looked at ease with the times.
Today’s party snarls at the city’s “metropolitan” values while Rishi Sunak (house in Kensington) and Liz Truss (Greenwich) have turned residency of north London into an attack line. Public spending per capita is still higher than in any other region in England but ministers are reluctant to trumpet this.
In its language on immigration the party alienates many in a diverse and youthful city. Attacks on Khan have at times depicted him as a demonic figure and pandered to Islamophobia. There is no optimism or love on show for a vibrant metropolis; recent campaigns depict it as a crime-ravaged hellhole.
Not all criticism is groundless. The south-east can be too dismissive of the rest of the country. But turning your face against your most important and revenue-generating city is self-defeating. It also helps explain why polls show you have to be over 70 before you are more likely to vote Conservative.
Tory travails in London go to the heart of the party’s dilemma nationally, not least because its hostile instincts are visible in other English cities and towards communities deemed unfriendly. Turning a country against itself is the tactic of demagogues. While Labour is reaching out to those parts of the country it lost at the 2019 elections, the Tories seem to be narrowing the groups they wish to win.
To borrow its own vernacular, the party does not need to “go woke” to reclaim the cities. Previous leaders have shown it is entirely possible to follow mainstream Conservative values and be viable in the capital.
As important as the tone is that, with a few exceptions, such as the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, the Tories seem indifferent to the capital’s needs. And even Hunt is not above unveiling a new non-dom tax regime that will reduce London’s appeal for foreign nationals simply to spike Labour’s spending plans. The Tories need an economic offer to London. A post-Brexit strategy to attract investment and build homes is essential to bridge a gap in social values and will be key to any revival.
Brexit alienated London voters not merely because of the issue itself but because Tories deprioritised the capital’s economic interests, especially financial services. The vibrant, open-for-business city championed by Cameron, George Osborne and (mayor) Johnson delivering jobs and investment is not one Tories now talk about. Levelling up other regions is laudable but no excuse for the supposed party of business and growth appearing to disdain the city that does most to drive both.
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Conservatives also need a compelling offer on housing for the workers being priced out of the capital. Hall unconvincingly backs more high-density housing but also opposes tower blocks. And even Michael Gove’s rental reforms to improve conditions for tenants are being watered down by Tory MPs.
Sunak’s background and style made him an ideal man to reverse the anti-London sentiment. But any efforts have been drowned out by more strident voices. Meanwhile, those Tories who might appeal to London find the party increasingly unwelcoming.
Rebuilding the relationship will be a sign that the Tories aspire again to be a national party. London will not deliver a future Tory victory but being chased out of it will certainly herald defeat.