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Labour’s spectacular wins in two by-elections have allowed party insiders to dare to dream they are now on track not only to win the next UK general election but to sweep to victory with a landslide.
Officials in the party, now 13 years and counting out of power, were pinching themselves on Friday after the historic nature of the wins became clear. “It’s all a bit unbelievable. This doesn’t happen to the Labour party,” said one.
The result in Mid Bedfordshire broke the modern record for the largest numerical majority overturned at a by-election in history, while in Tamworth the swing to Labour was the second-highest ever seen in a by-election.
The victories have prompted comparisons with the run-up to Tony Blair’s seismic general election victory in 1997 that ushered in 13 years of New Labour government.
Though people close to leader Sir Keir Starmer said it was “folly” to draw analogies with the 1990s, they admitted there is “a bit of a pattern” between 1996 and 2023 ahead of the general election expected next year.
Starmer himself made the comparison explicit, telling Sky News: “What I do want to do is follow in the footsteps of a leader of our party who took us from opposition into power.”
Labour has led the ruling Conservative party in election polling consistently over the past year and has secured a series of by-election victories that have pumped up morale in the party.
As well as taking seats from the Tories in England, the party has shown signs of a possible resurgence in Scotland, which was once a Labour stronghold and is critical to its hopes of a majority at Westminster.
Earlier this month, Labour won Rutherglen and Hamilton West from the Scottish National party, signalling major gains at the next general election in Scotland, where it currently has just two MPs.
Patrick English, a pollster at YouGov, said one of the main bounties of the by-elections wins was the narrative they helped craft. “It frames them as winners, which keeps momentum, enthusiasm and morale up,” he said.
Some Labour shadow ministers cautioned against reading too much into the results, given that by-elections tend to give rise to unusual dynamics, and turnout is almost always far lower than in a general election.
This week’s polls arose in specific circumstances that were likely to harm the Tory vote: one seat was vacated by a Tory MP embroiled in a groping scandal, the other by a former Conservative minister accused of neglecting constituents.
But prime minister Rishi Sunak’s critics in his own party have been less restrained.
Lord David Frost, the former Brexit minister, said on social media that the results were “extremely bad” for the Conservatives, even taking into account the “special factors” at play in each by-election.
“The current national polls are dreadful for us but these results are even *worse*. The very worst current polls show us holding 100-150 seats at an election. But Tamworth is our 55th safest seat,” Frost wrote on social media platform X.
Some Conservative MPs said the mood in the parliamentary party was sulphurous, noting that Sunak’s bid to present himself as a “change” candidate had been severely undermined by the party’s dismal by-election results.
“There are a lot of calls for re-energisation and reset. The results put more pressure on Rishi for a King’s Speech and a reshuffle that are more election-focused,” said one former minister.
Conservative figures said apathy had gripped soft supporters of their party and these had decided to stay at home in a display of frustration at the chaos of successive Tory administrations.
Indeed turnout was strikingly low in both ballots on Thursday. Only 35.9 per cent of electors voted in Tamworth, and 44 per cent in Mid Bedfordshire.
The hope among more optimistic Tory MPs is that these voters will turn out once again for their party in a general election, a prospect labelled “delusional” by a more pessimistic parliamentarian.
One issue identified by Conservative officials is that though Starmer may not match the charisma of Blair, he is a far cry from the “bogeyman” of Jeremy Corbyn, who in 2019 led Labour to its worst defeat since 1935.
“Corbyn was a reason to go out and vote,” said one Tory party insider. “Our voters thought ‘We must stop this terrible man.’ Starmer is not scary. He will not be enough of a reason, however savage the party’s attacks against him.”
Sunak on Friday, speaking from Cairo during a diplomatic tour over the Israel-Hamas war, conceded the by-elections were “obviously disappointing results”.
But he stressed it was “important to remember the context — midterm elections are always difficult for incumbent governments and, of course, there are also local factors at play here”.
While Labour frontbenchers are aware of the need to avoid complacency, they are still savouring this moment of electoral success.
A member of the shadow cabinet said the results meant Labour could take seats from the Conservatives anywhere in the country: “This means they aren’t even safe in heartland seats.”