Boris Johnson is poring over the findings of a probe into whether he lied to MPs about lockdown parties in Downing Street, as some allies fear he could face a sanction that triggers his potential eviction from parliament.
The former prime minister is being investigated by the Commons privileges committee over whether he misled parliament with his assurances that events breaching coronavirus regulations did not take place in Number 10 during the pandemic.
If the committee finds him in contempt of parliament, he could face suspension from the Commons. If this were for 10 days or more, he could face a recall petition that in turn could spark a by-election in his seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, putting his future as an MP at risk.
A draft of the committee’s report has been sent to Johnson, The Times first reported, under a so-called “Maxwellisation process” that will allow him to respond to any criticism before it is published.
Johnson has a fortnight to respond before the committee hands its verdict to MPs, who will vote on any recommended sanction.
Some friends of Johnson previously hoped that he would escape with a sanction of less than 10 days — avoiding opening the way to a potential recall petition — but his allies have become increasingly uneasy in recent weeks.
One person familiar with the committee’s deliberations said: “When it’s the prime minister it’s more important that he is held to the highest standards given he is the most senior of all ministers. There is an element here of needing to set an example.”
However, the person dismissed comparisons between the sanction Johnson may face and that meted out to MP Margaret Ferrier, formerly of the SNP but now an independent, who was suspended from the Commons this week for 30 days over a breach of coronavirus rules.
Ferrier “isn’t the precedent because they’re chalk and cheese”, the person said, pointing out the two MPs had faced different allegations and were investigated by different committees. Ferrier faced a standards committee probe, while Johnson is facing a privileges committee investigation.
A privileges committee spokesman said its MPs had not yet necessarily come to their final decision.
“The committee is proceeding in accordance with its previously published procedure. Under that procedure, if the committee decides to criticise Mr Johnson, it will not come to a final conclusion until it has taken into account any further submissions from Mr Johnson,” the spokesman said.
“The committee will then report to the House in the usual way, and it will be for the House — not the committee — to decide on this matter,” he added.
Johnson has criticised the process by which he is being investigated and hinted at a three-hour hearing of the committee that he may not accept its findings if it proceeds to sanction him.
During the hearing the former prime minister told the panel of MPs that No 10 gatherings at which alcohol was consumed without social distancing during the pandemic were “necessary” for his work and he did not believe rules had been breached.