Good morning. Yesterday morning, Westminster was awash with rumours that Dominic Raab was soon to be sacked: at time of writing, Raab is still very much in place.
These rumours can fly through a parliamentary party at times and it is a useful reminder of a neglected truth about politics: there ultimately aren’t a lot of MPs and just like at a secondary school, some rumour or mania can very quickly take a life of its own.
At the moment, both Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer are the unquestioned masters of their respective parties, and unless one of them is mired in some kind of scandal, that ought not to change. But the potential for panic or upheaval is always possible in a group as small as the Conservative parliamentary party (let alone a group as small as the parliamentary Labour party).
For now, Raab survives. Sunak was accused by opposition parties yesterday of “dithering” as he spent the day debating with Downing Street officials whether to hold on to Raab. Some thoughts on that below.
To sack or not to sack
As far as Rishi Sunak’s own political interests are concerned, the case for trying to keep Dominic Raab is very, very strong. The justice secretary was one of a handful of politicians who was willing to go to bat for Sunak even when it was obvious that Liz Truss was destined to win the summer 2022 leadership race.
Like Sunak, he is a Brexiter of long standing and like Sunak is of the party’s right. But unlike the prime minister, he still has a considerable amount of credit in the bank among even the party’s Leave ultras and on its right flank.
There are already looming internal battles within the Conservative party over ministers’ plans to ignore interim injunctions from the European Court of Human Rights which prevent the UK deporting asylum seekers to Rwanda. On the one hand, the party’s right flank is threatening to rebel if the illegal migration bill is not toughened up. On the other, Sunak faces opposition in the House of Lords and from his party’s liberal wing if he does go through with the amendment.
The already fraught balancing act among his MPs will be much harder if Sunak has to dispense with Raab.
So if there is anything in the independent report into Raab’s conduct that Sunak can, with a straight face, use to keep his ally in place, there is a good reason to do so.
Call me unduly cynical, but my read on the prolonged period of silence and uncertainty over Raab’s future is that, if the text of the report could be used to mount any credible argument that he should remain in place, then we would not still be unsure about his fate.
But his importance to Sunak is one reason why the prime minister might yet seek to tough this one out.
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Now try this
I have Georgina to thank for today’s recommendation: we went to see the Orchestra of the Age of Enlightenment mark Christopher Wren’s tercentenary at the beautiful St Stephen Walbrook church by playing a selection of pieces by Henry Purcell. It really is an astonishingly beautiful building with a wonderful acoustic. I only wish I didn’t have plans this evening and could go see the OAE’s take on Vivaldi’s Four Seasons tonight, also at St Stephen (which is also worth a visit in its own right.)
Eid Mubarak to those of you who celebrate it, and however you spend it, have a wonderful weekend.
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